Middle-East & North African Discussion

Dutch news is reporting the Kuwaiti parliament was stormed.

http://www.nu.nl/buitenland/2670298/crisisoverleg-koeweit-bestorming-parlement.html

"oliestaatje" - Made me chuckle.

Antistia wrote:Dutch news is reporting the Kuwaiti parliament was stormed.

http://www.nu.nl/buitenland/2670298/crisisoverleg-koeweit-bestorming-parlement.html

Yep it was ... really low scale protests for now. We had a few protests a month or so ago but I'm not sure if it's gonna escalate any further

Tsurana/Lorainne wrote:I smell hypocrisy.

As usual, the UN changes his opinion due to the Zionist gold and the US threatening to kill everyone in it *nods sagely* weaklings...

Shaelyssa wrote:

Antistia wrote:Dutch news is reporting the Kuwaiti parliament was stormed.

http://www.nu.nl/buitenland/2670298/crisisoverleg-koeweit-bestorming-parlement.html

Yep it was ... really low scale protests for now. We had a few protests a month or so ago but I'm not sure if it's gonna escalate any further

Quick shae! Run away! And paint your dog the colour grey!
(needed to rhyme)

Me and my mate were speaking of the Iran issue and we think that Iran is extremely tough and well-prepared for war. They kind of know that others want to invade their country, and they will certainly not stand aside and do nothing. If we are correct then they're extremely well protected versus cyberspace assaults and are entirely self-dependant when it comes to military+weapons/supplies and their folks have a forced military service of 2 years or something, they know how to fight. On top of that, like I said they know that others wish to kick their arses, so it wouldn't be entirely odd if they HAVE nuclear missiles. Not to rofl stomp us but more to use as protection. In their logic, who the flux would invade a country with nuclear weapons of mass destruction?

I'm not surprised if USA + Israel does invade them anyways, and if Iran has nuclear stuff...watch out people.

On top of all of this, Rusia and China seem to be on Iran's side?

So we were thinking, IF USA and Israel decide to invade Iran, would it be fair to say that there's a chance of a ww3, nuclear mode activated?

Would love to hear some thoughts on this =)

Crojwin wrote:Me and my mate were speaking of the Iran issue and we think that Iran is extremely tough and well-prepared for war. They kind of know that others want to invade their country, and they will certainly not stand aside and do nothing. If we are correct then they're extremely well protected versus cyberspace assaults and are entirely self-dependant when it comes to military+weapons/supplies and their folks have a forced military service of 2 years or something, they know how to fight. On top of that, like I said they know that others wish to kick their arses, so it wouldn't be entirely odd if they HAVE nuclear missiles. Not to rofl stomp us but more to use as protection. In their logic, who the flux would invade a country with nuclear weapons of mass destruction?

I'm not surprised if USA + Israel does invade them anyways, and if Iran has nuclear stuff...watch out people.

On top of all of this, Rusia and China seem to be on Iran's side?

So we were thinking, IF USA and Israel decide to invade Iran, would it be fair to say that there's a chance of a ww3, nuclear mode activated?

Would love to hear some thoughts on this =)

Nobody's going to start WW3 over Iran.

Please elaborate. I find it interesting but can do little with such short answers ^^

Iran should shut up and help its citizens. The populace there is so poor, it's depressing especially considering their potential

Crojwin wrote:Please elaborate. I find it interesting but can do little with such short answers ^^

The US isn't going to throw itself into Iran if there's a credible threat of a full military response from Russia or China, and they'll have hundreds of people dedicated to finding out if there is a threat before they do anything. Likewise, neither Russia or China wants to be dragged into a world-wide war over some pawn of theirs, so they'll do what's necessary to make sure the US knows whether they're serious about holding their hand over Iran (I find this unlikely. Iran's biggest benefit to them at the moment is as a distraction for the US and a bargaining chip for favors in return for them to stand aside while the US invades), or whether they're just bluffing for the sake of appearances.

For perspective, consider that the leaderships of both the US and Russia were genuinely convinced that the other could strike at any time during the cold war, and still the fear of the consequences of global nuclear war kept them from doing anything, then ask why any of them would suddenly have overcome that fear just for the sake of yet another war in the middle east.

Saevir wrote:Nobody's going to start WW3 over Iran.

Possibly not the USA, Chinese or Russians, but Israel might launch a nuclear first strike if it is revealed beyond doubt that Iran has nuclear weapons.

Sadly, unlike the Soviet Union and NATO during the Cold War, there are plenty of people in high places in the Arab world who see nothing wrong with countless of their own people being killed in order to get at the Israelis. In most countries those "high places" are limited to militia and underground groups with the occasional government backing.

In Iran? Not so much.

The concept of mutually assured destruction isn't as big a deterrant for those people, especially since Israel, as a small country (in terms of surface area) would suffer far greater damage from far fewer bombs than Iran. That kind of reasoning is enough to convince some crazies that it's "Worth a shot", believe it or not.

Even if Iran had a working nuclear weapon, that would still be far, far away from them being able to produce nukes in the numbers necessary to trigger a global nuclear exchange. That's not even counting the fact that they don't have any means of reliably delivering nukes outside the surrounding region, save for through state-sponsored terrorists.

Even so, the US, Russia and China isn't going to suddenly nuke each other into oblivion if Iran managed to detonate a nuke in Israel or elsewhere. The origin of the nuclear material used in a detonation is in fact very easy to trace back to the point where it was manufactured, so the whole world would quickly be able to determine that Iran was the culprit. In that case, Russia and China would grab some popcorn and watch while Iran got the everliving shit beaten out of it.

They'd certainly not let some asshat in the middle east decide for them that they should be fighting the US

Noone but Israel has the balls to use nukes, and Israel would only use them if they'd be facing annihilation. They'd never use it if they're the actual invaders.

As for Iran using nukes, they're not nearly stupid enough to do that, as they'd be turned into glass then.

Don't be silly, people.

If we are correct then they're extremely well protected versus cyberspace assaults and are entirely self-dependant when it comes to military+weapons/supplies and their folks have a forced military service of 2 years or something, they know how to fight. On top of that, like I said they know that others wish to kick their arses, so it wouldn't be entirely odd if they HAVE nuclear missiles.

Iran isn't very protected against cyberspace assaults. Just look at Stuxnet. Resource wise they cannot keep up with the United States on the cyber-war front. We often hear about cyber attacks against the United States, but make no mistake; The United States is doing this too and they're quite capable.

As for conventional warfare: The Iranian air force cannot compete on any level whatsoever with what the United States can bring to bear. Their air force is composed of many old aircraft. They have 100 pure air superiority fighters. The newest being a MiG-29. As far as I know these aircraft are no match for the United States, and I'm not even counting the US bringing the F-22 to bear. Will there be losses? Absolutely, but domination of the air will belong to the United States.

Ground wise the biggest advantage Iran has is that it is big. I'm going to discard their conventional forces out of hand here. Call me biased but I don't see them being able to win a normal ground war with the United States based on their equipment. An insurgency is a whole different matter altogether, it's Iraq^100.. But who says there's going to be an occupation

As for missiles, the Iranians have the Shahab missiles which might be capable of reaching Europe at farthest. Israel will most likely be in trouble but it's one thing to have Medium range ballistic missiles. It's another thing to equip them with a nuclear warhead.

On top of all of this, Rusia and China seem to be on Iran's side?

In the security council Russia and China have a set pattern; they're against intervening in the affairs of other nations. Just look at the Arab Spring and the type of government these two states have. You don't want to set a precedent of UN intervention to defend a people's democratic rights when you're oppressing your own people now do you? Furthermore, Russia and China will not risk war with the United States over Iran. It would be MAD... And quite destructive for everyone's economy, especially the Chinese and American economies.

So we were thinking, IF USA and Israel decide to invade Iran, would it be fair to say that there's a chance of a ww3, nuclear mode activated?

Simply put? No. There won't even be a proper invasion if you ask me, at utmost we're going to see a strike at their military facilities and nuclear facilities. Maybe even a decapitation strike, but a proper invasion? No.
It will be ugly for Israel though, very ugly. The United States has little to fear, bar the Straits of Hormuz being closed, but for Israel it will be ugly as missiles will blot out the sun. I'm looking at you Hezbollah & Hamas.

Possibly not the USA, Chinese or Russians, but Israel might launch a nuclear first strike if it is revealed beyond doubt that Iran has nuclear weapons.

If you ask me, that's very doubtful. I believe Israel has too much to lose by going nuclear, a conventional strike would do quite well if executed properly.

Noone but Israel has the balls to use nukes, and Israel would only use them if they'd be facing annihilation. They'd never use it if they're the actual invaders.

Well.. No. The British have put notes on their nuclear submarines with instructions for their captains to launch their weapons at X or Y in case of a nuclear attack on Great Britain. I'd not be surprised if the Americans have such instructions too or have it completely automated. The Soviets had the so called Dead Hand system which the Russians might still be using today. My point is that the nuclear powers have second strike capabilities, and all of them would be willing to use nukes if faced with a proper threat to their continued existence.

All in all though nuclear weapons are not offensive weapons, they're defensive because of the fact that they're deterrents. Deterrents that might be able to be eliminated as time progresses.. Which is not a good development for world peace.

I never said that Iran and Israel would start WWIII. I very much doubt it, in fact. But I am concerned about the fallout of the inevitable conflict between the two, especially if Iran gets a hold of functional nuclear weapons. It might not be the end of the world, but it sure as fuck won't be another day at the office either.

Raelan/Relithien wrote:As for Iran using nukes, they're not nearly stupid enough to do that, as they'd be turned into glass then.

As I said above, the concept of mutually assured destruction isn't enough of a deterrent for some people. You have to remember that the sad truth is that Iran is governed by crazy people.

Antistia wrote:I believe Israel has too much to lose by going nuclear, a conventional strike would do quite well if executed properly.

Oh, definately. Israel launched conventional airstrikes against Iraq's nuclear energy programme, crippling it for many years until the Second Gulf War finally got rid of Saddam's regime.

I'm expecting them to do something similar against Iran in the foreseeable future - but remember, my hypothetical scenario has Iran with nuclear weapons ready for use, at which point the shit will hit the fan.

That's true, Sanara, but even then a well executed conventional strike might work out, at least that's what I think. I just hope that if it happens the United States has its hypersonic weapon ready. They tested it this week. 2300 miles in 30 fucking minutes. That could hit a nuclear missile silo before the silo doors have opened. Assuming it's launched from relatively close-by.. I'm thinking Saudi Arabia

But yes, when that happens shit will hit the fan.

Antistia wrote:But yes, when that happens shit will hit the fan.

Goodbye Internet, goodbye electricity, hello ruins of Tel Aviv, hello 20th century.

...The maya's were right all along...

You guys are scaring me. Anyone have a bunker I can stay in?

Hiding, meh. The day holland gets into shit is the day I sign up for the army! But until then...sweet chair, sweet pc, sweet college, etc.

Cheers for the posts people. And is it me or is the...well atleast dutch...news kind of empty when it comes to news about these matters..? Hmm

Well in a year, I'll be Dutch xD

No country is adequatly prepared for a war with NATO.

The USA, UK, and France alone make up for more than 50% of the entire worlds military budget.

NATO's technological superiority is unsurpassed. Our anti nuke technology has been perfected to the point that Russia and China threatened to sell their nukes to un-named third parties if it was ever deployed.

Our ground to air missiles render air to ground strikes or counter air efforts against our forces suicidal and our troops are the best trained, equipped, supported, and most experianced in the world.

Our Naval forces render any other nations attempts at projection of power ineffective and enable us to strike anywhere in the world.

Iran's only card is the unpredictably insane nature of it's grand wizard.

Grand wizard?
I suddenly love Iran. They have a wizarding order!

Lyniath wrote:Grand wizard?
I suddenly love Iran. They have a wizarding order!

My turkic friend made a project in high school which was basically all about how Iran is a Magocratic Dictatorship straight out of a fantasy novel, except without real wizards.

If they actually had real wizards NATO might be in trouble.


"What can men do against such reckless hate?" - Theodan