Middle-East & North African Discussion

I fear that the chance to have an Iraq v. 2.0 is rather high unless a lot of exiled libyans return fast and teach the country how2democrats.

I always like to think of the French revolution, when thinking of these North-Africans.. I mean, the French did not get it right, at all, nor will these north-african nations immediately. I just hope the time the inhabitants will need to learn how2democrat properly (which can take a while) will be a moderately stable one.

I really doubt any form of democracy may even remotely pose a longterm solution for most of the locals in North Africa. Either through dictatorship, or through a proper government, there's a high chance the countries will be led by demagogues or puppets. Guess its harder to identify the culprits when there's more than one of them when a country goes down the drain and that's a good thing.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/20/us-libya-idUSTRE79F1FK20111020

Another dictator down. All eyes on Syria now.

Saevir wrote:http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/20/us-libya-idUSTRE79F1FK20111020

Another dictator down. All eyes on Syria now.

Nobody will do anything about Syria, don't worry- Russia is making too much profit from the current government that runs it to allow any intervention by the west.

The confirmation on Gaddafi's demise is sketchy though, at best.

Some NTC sources claim he is prisoner, others that he was disabled then executed, and NATO have made a statement that a convoy (what type or featuring who, they haven't said) was hit on it's flight from Sirte.

Nothing is confirmed yet, I think. Bit early. But we shall see.

I'd like to think we can look to Syria now. Yemen and Bahrain. But well... yeah.

" Gaddafi, 69, was reportedly found hiding in a drain outside Sirte, where he and and others had taken shelter after their convoy was hit by a Nato airstrike as it attempted to escape.

• Graphic video and pictures of the dead dictator have been released. His body was apparently dragged through the streets of Sirte. An NTC spokesman said Gaddafi was shot in the head and in both legs.

• Gaddafi was alive when captured and died in an ambulance on the way to Misrata, according to the NTC's UK representative."

So all the possible stories were true! Kinda.

There's some pictures, they were around a few hours ago, but are messy things from mobile phones.

"Hiding in a drain". Wonder if it's one of the canal/sewer systems he had made to "ship water to the desert". Or is just a ditch.

more like Gaddeadfi

grufftoof wrote:" "Hiding in a drain". Wonder if it's one of the canal/sewer systems he had made to "ship water to the desert". Or is just a ditch.

They showed on BBC what the NTC claimed to be where he was hiding- a random sewer exit as it seems.

Sic semper tyrannis.

heard about what happened on bbc arabic on the radio

wonder whatll happen next

Shaelyssa wrote:heard about what happened on bbc arabic on the radio

wonder whatll happen next

(continued) Civil War/autocratic (despotic) regime/democratic regime.

These are the three flavors the people of Libya can 'choose' from.
I got quite a bit of confidence in the fact that the latter may well take hold but I'm not without doubts.

They interviewed a libyan on bbc arabic and I'm not sure what he said cause the Libyan dialect is so different to my own but I think he was a Gaddafi supporter and started talking about all the good he had done for Libya and how the world lost a great leader

it was interesting

Now the true strugle for power between the factions begins........

glilya wrote:more like Gaddeadfi

*nod nod*

At least it's one less problem to deal with... Now let's find ourselves the next war politician, hunt him down and murder him

Another reign of terror has ended.


On a more serious note, everytime a dicator gets killed, someone else will be there to take his place. Humans have in their nature a greed for power, and if exposed to it, they will have trouble resisting. From rumors, the new leader in Egypt is even worse then the last one. (Might just be rumors, but meh.)

Shaelly is moving to scotlandland anyway, the little runaway xD

According to Al-Arabiya NATO has ruled out military intervention in Syria. I find this to be a sad, sad day for the Syrian populace.

In other Middle-Eastern news, the United States wants to increase the number of troops it has stationed in Kuwait and is seeking to expand military ties with friendly Gulf states. Hi Iran, how're you?

Well, i'd reckon its more about the fact they're leaving "Iraq" then its about Iran.

Amaryl wrote:Well, i'd reckon its more about the fact they're leaving "Iraq" then its about Iran.

Well, yes and no. It turned the withdrawal from Iraq into a realignment of US forces in the area. The sword goes both ways, they want to be able to intervene in Iraq if it devolves into chaos and they want to be ready for an armed conflict with Iran. It's obviously brought about by the US withdrawal from Iraq, but I would reckon it is more about a signal to Iran than being able to intervene in Iraq.

Just heard something on the radio about the US and Israel threatening to invade Iran or something??

The rhetoric is getting upped a notch now that the UN Atomic Energy inspectors claim to have proof of Iran attempting to build nuclear warheads.

I smell hypocrisy.

Shaelyssa wrote:Just heard something on the radio about the US and Israel threatening to invade Iran or something??

There's a new IAEA report coming out this week or the next which is likely to provide further allegations that Iran is developing nuclear weapons technology. I believe I read somewhere that it is concerning missile technology which is to be compatible with nuclear technology. In effect, the allegations would come down to Iran developing nuclear missiles.

http://news.yahoo.com/iaea-iran-nearing-nuclear-capability-report-080023067.html

In a sort of preemptive response to these allegations the Israelis have started to step up their rhetoric. Notable is that Israeli president Peres, who is noted as being an optimist and a dove, has said that a military solution is likelier than a diplomatic solution. Furthermore I've heard that Israeli prime minister Netanyahu has been consulting his ministers in an attempt to gain support for this potential strike against Iranian nuclear facilities. It's not an invasion, it's similar to what they did to Iraq and Syria, only much more difficult and, I believe, would require special forces storming a bunker or two this time around. The latter is just my own personal speculation.

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/peres-i-believe-israel-world-approaching-military-option-on-iran-nuclear-threat-1.393801

In response to increased Israeli rhetoric it is reported that the United States is increasingly monitoring the situation. This means they're monitoring both Iran and Israel. I'm guessing the United States will act together with Israel if or when Iran gets hit, but I also think they're monitoring Israel just to be sure they won't be caught off guard if Israel decides to go it alone. Those developments are quite important because the United States will likely get involved anyhow and they have a significant presence in the area both in terms of naval units, ground forces and aerial forces.

http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2011/11/04/u-s-concerned-israel-could-strike-iran/

In another twist, the British have said that they are speeding up the development of plans for a possible strike on Iran together with the United States (and other possible allies). This is said to be an act in anticipation of a possible request by the Obama administration for military support in a strike on Iran and nothing more.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/nov/02/uk-military-iran-attack-nuclear

And then we have the Gulf states, who are said to be supportive of an Israeli strike on Iran. Not only that, but I vaguely remember Israel and Saudi-Arabia having a silent agreement (or not so silent) that Israeli planes can use Saudi airspace to attack Iran. I believe the Saudis have even tested shutting down their usual response mechanism to foreign aircraft entering their airspace in anticipation of this. No source though.

I think that gets you up to date on the latest developments with regard to a possible strike on Iran.