How famines work
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How famines work
Right, Aleric asked me to look into how famines function and happen and write something reasonably simple about it for the big event we're planning. Much of it will be my own reasonings and deduction (as always ) and will be taken bits and pieces from all I've read on the subject.
To understand a famine, I think key is understanding how food distribution is handled and therefore on what principles the economy is based. I'll spoiler it for brevity:
Basics of economy and food
How would a poor harvest happen
Harvests are very weather dependent, in fact... the perfect match of rain and sun is needed. If it rains too much, the harvest drowns. If it rains to little (which is what many of us Europeans would refer to as perfect vacation weather these days) then it dries out.
It is also dependant on labour being there and able to collect the harvest. There's only so many days before it rots in the fields.
The third matter is that the nobility and church (ie- the landowners) pass it along.
The fourth is that too much isn't diverted to feed the armies.
And of course... if a granary would burn down... the amount of food available drops sharply.
"Society is only three meals away from complete anarchy"
One of the compromises in society is that we group together to make life easier. We give up some freedoms to better be able to do what we want and to be protected by the larger community.
But if society fails to provide that safety, the social contracts break down. Lack of food is one of those things that would cause this. A city is a great place to live as long as there's food. But there's almost imposisble to produce food there, it all has to be shipped in externally. And generally there's no way at all the population could travel far enough away to get food before they starve to death.
When a famine strikes a city, or indeed an entire region, all laws break down. Following the law is of no use, because there won't be anough food to acquire legally. They will starve. Worse, their children will starve. And people get very short tempers when they're hungry.
At the same time, the authorities will be forced to hold on to what little supplies they have. Because one small meal every day is better than 3 months without a single one. ANd if the soldiers aren't fed... they'll leave. So the food must be held on. But the people will want it -now-.
Starving societies are messy. Suffice to say.
Heavens, I forgot the most important bit:
How a famine progresses:
The first notice will be by the nobles (or landlords), since their people's surplus will be much lower. It might even be non-existant, and they're pleading for a tax reduction. This is always a cause for concern and will generally be seen by the nobility actually spending money to fill their own granaries. However... in times of war they might be unable to do this. And some less sycophantic, less glory-hunting ones (a rare breed admittedly) will be lobbying extensively for tax reductions or even that the war ends.
Second notice will happen some 2-3 weeks after harvest. When the merchants notice that their stores are much too low after all transports have been brought in. This is when they'll reduce the rations, leading to the price skyrocketing.
2-3 weeks after that... food prices will skyrocket. People will be contineously hungry and the food will be sold mere minutes after being brought out. Merchants will try to hold this back. The reason is that both by law and by the notion of profit they should ration the food. But the rations won't be enough to feed the city. Riots will happen frequently after that.
After that... differrnt things may happen. If the warehouses remain as they are, with supplements from the royal granaries then the strife will continue either until food is brought in or it runs out. Or if the warehouses are opened/stormed... then people will be fed for a few days... and then the area will be completely out of food.
When a city is out of food. People will abandon their jobs to just look for anything edible. Animals, even horses, will be slaughtered for food. Guards will abandon their posts. Homes will be left behind as their residents just leave. Bodies will lie in the the streets. Anything of value will be plundered and sold on the black market for food. Some will even sell the clothes they're wearing.
It won't end until a massive influx of food is brought in.
To understand a famine, I think key is understanding how food distribution is handled and therefore on what principles the economy is based. I'll spoiler it for brevity:
Basics of economy and food
- Spoiler:
- Stormwind is unlike our society, which is based on commerse and run by banks, stock-markets and risk-capitalists. Nor is it industrial, run by industrialists, bureaucrats and factory owners. But it is agricultural, and run primarily on the produce of the land. Not only does the main staple, grain (like in Europe) come from the land but also the primary textiles silk, wool and linen. Almost everthing is either locally produces or very very expensive. And almost every cost is directly proportional to the number of meals that was required to produce this item.
It's an economy run by the producers and not the consumers. Prices are dictated by how long it takes to acquire, not competition.
The very smallest unit is the farmhold, the farmer and his family. They till the earth, raise animals and grow and reap their harvest. This far is things are relatively simple.
However, it is much easier to steal than to grow your own food. This is why there are warriors. Warriors functions to protect the farmer from having his hard-work stolen. However, warriors are very rarely capable of both protecting the land and growing their own food. Hence warrior castes and by extention, nobility.
The very premise of the feudal contract is based on this: "I will allow you to live and raise your family on my land in return for that you spend a reasonable amount of time to serve me". My land in this case refers to the area which the noble has sworn to protect, and serve means to work the noble's fields for a peasant or serve as a warrior for their liege for a noble. This then repeats itself all the way to the top (kings serve the emperor, dukes serve the king, counts serve the dukes, barons serve the counts, non-titled nobility and knights serve the barons and farmers serve the non-titles nobility and the knights. And variations thereupon).
Now, some might argue that Stormwind isn't feudal. And indeed, many evidence suggests that it isn't true feudalism. But on the larger scale I still think that the vast majority of Stormwind's farmers live in arrendation. That is to say they're granted their own little plot of land to feed their family (note: not just the nuclear family. But also grandparents and a small number of farmhands, maids and other servants) with (and sell their surplus) in exchange for working a certain amount of time on the landlord's own fields (or helping maintan his roads and bridges, doing some logging for him or working a mine for him). Then there's a sizeable amount of so called "free men" which are farmers who pay taxes (with the money they get from selling their produce instead) instead of work, but these are unvariable rather rich men. Just a step short of being landlords (that is to say, noble) themselves.
Thus... A farmer produces some food for himself, which will both feed him and his family and (hopefully) a small surplus he will be able to sell, and some for his landlord.
The landlord has a number of farmholds under his suzerainty, because a single one couldn't possibly supply a second family except during extremely bountiful years. Not seldom an entire village (which consists of many farmholds). All in all, like farmholds they will keep some to supply their household (which consists of not only the extended family but also -all- the servants and soldiers serving the house) and the surplus will be divided between the tithe to his liege and a surplus to sell.
Then this system climbs the ladder until it reaches the king. Each step up the ladder the surplus grows almost exponentially. A poor knight might only earn marginally more than a farmer but the king will be able to at leats partially supply an army (and the largest household in the realm, consisting of hundreds of people). SOme of which he'll sell (this is were a vast amount of hard currency comes from, in addition to taxes paid in money as well) and some that will be put in storage for later.
Ultimately... all food will end up in one of five sorts of granaries:
The royal granaries and...
the royal arsenals
The Noble keeps (and the churches' equalient)
The merchant warehouses
And the earth cellars.
The royal granaries store food for emergencies, usually selling off some to the merchants in spring. The royal arsenals store food for the arnies. The noble and church ones do the same role as the royal granaries but for their own fiefs and household forces. The earch cellars is were the farmers keep their own little surpluses.
Which leaves us with the merchants. These men and women do great business in buying up everything from farmers, nobles, church and king sells. Store them in great warehouses and then over the year passes it out in small doses to the shopkeeps who sell it to bakers, butchers, cooks and on the markets.
The crux of the matter is that the harvest happens twice, a small one in early summer and a large one at it's end. The rest of the year you're just living on what was reaped then. This is why winter and mid-spring was not considered to be war seasons, you simply did not have enough food to be able to move your armies safely. By the early summer the warehouses will be almost empty. In poor years the noble and royal granaries as well.
The prices are kept level by the storing and gradual giving out. But if said stores would be insufficient, there'll be nothing to fall back on. It's kind of difficult to grasp in our modern society. But every agricultural society's well being is based on how good the harvest was in late summer. If it is a poor one, then the entire society will suffer for a year. A good one and the entire society will prosper.
How would a poor harvest happen
Harvests are very weather dependent, in fact... the perfect match of rain and sun is needed. If it rains too much, the harvest drowns. If it rains to little (which is what many of us Europeans would refer to as perfect vacation weather these days) then it dries out.
It is also dependant on labour being there and able to collect the harvest. There's only so many days before it rots in the fields.
The third matter is that the nobility and church (ie- the landowners) pass it along.
The fourth is that too much isn't diverted to feed the armies.
And of course... if a granary would burn down... the amount of food available drops sharply.
"Society is only three meals away from complete anarchy"
One of the compromises in society is that we group together to make life easier. We give up some freedoms to better be able to do what we want and to be protected by the larger community.
But if society fails to provide that safety, the social contracts break down. Lack of food is one of those things that would cause this. A city is a great place to live as long as there's food. But there's almost imposisble to produce food there, it all has to be shipped in externally. And generally there's no way at all the population could travel far enough away to get food before they starve to death.
When a famine strikes a city, or indeed an entire region, all laws break down. Following the law is of no use, because there won't be anough food to acquire legally. They will starve. Worse, their children will starve. And people get very short tempers when they're hungry.
At the same time, the authorities will be forced to hold on to what little supplies they have. Because one small meal every day is better than 3 months without a single one. ANd if the soldiers aren't fed... they'll leave. So the food must be held on. But the people will want it -now-.
Starving societies are messy. Suffice to say.
Heavens, I forgot the most important bit:
How a famine progresses:
The first notice will be by the nobles (or landlords), since their people's surplus will be much lower. It might even be non-existant, and they're pleading for a tax reduction. This is always a cause for concern and will generally be seen by the nobility actually spending money to fill their own granaries. However... in times of war they might be unable to do this. And some less sycophantic, less glory-hunting ones (a rare breed admittedly) will be lobbying extensively for tax reductions or even that the war ends.
Second notice will happen some 2-3 weeks after harvest. When the merchants notice that their stores are much too low after all transports have been brought in. This is when they'll reduce the rations, leading to the price skyrocketing.
2-3 weeks after that... food prices will skyrocket. People will be contineously hungry and the food will be sold mere minutes after being brought out. Merchants will try to hold this back. The reason is that both by law and by the notion of profit they should ration the food. But the rations won't be enough to feed the city. Riots will happen frequently after that.
After that... differrnt things may happen. If the warehouses remain as they are, with supplements from the royal granaries then the strife will continue either until food is brought in or it runs out. Or if the warehouses are opened/stormed... then people will be fed for a few days... and then the area will be completely out of food.
When a city is out of food. People will abandon their jobs to just look for anything edible. Animals, even horses, will be slaughtered for food. Guards will abandon their posts. Homes will be left behind as their residents just leave. Bodies will lie in the the streets. Anything of value will be plundered and sold on the black market for food. Some will even sell the clothes they're wearing.
It won't end until a massive influx of food is brought in.
Gahalla- Posts : 495
Join date : 2010-01-30
Age : 36
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Title: Doctor
Re: How famines work
yay at last, been waiting for this thread to open!
Lexgrad- Posts : 6140
Join date : 2011-03-12
Age : 42
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Re: How famines work
If it is cool with everyone, ive had Jarric going through the books calculating ect. So I thought i could get the ball rolling with an ic speech, kinda keep calmand carry on, everything will be alright, the king will look after us ect. A kinda public "everything is alright" and a "shit we are gonna starve" behind the scenes
Lexgrad- Posts : 6140
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Re: How famines work
Please post this in the LFRP section, Gahalla, as to draw more attention.
Also, keep one post reserved for future additions, such as the agenda, those organising it et cetera.
Thanks in advance
Also, keep one post reserved for future additions, such as the agenda, those organising it et cetera.
Thanks in advance
Lorainne/Bridlington- Posts : 1612
Join date : 2011-05-08
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